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A time of volatility for UK commercial property

High commercial property prices will surely fall, leaving real estate managers somewhat nervous for both the current and future state of the sector. The question that managers are debating is how far prices must fall...

The rise in borrowing costs across the UK has resulted in challenged across the board for commercial real estate investors on a transactional level. "Analysts at Goldman Sachs forecast that UK commercial property prices could fall by up to 20 per cent by the end of 2024. Rising interest rates have increased costs for owners of offices, shops and warehouses, just as they have homeowners looking to secure mortgages".

The current climate has created an expected surge in outflow from fund managers to release capital whilst awaiting the fall in the market. “Buildings will trade, but at a lower price ... the clearing price will have to be 30-35 per cent lower than in June this year" as is stated in the FTs article. The commercial property sector will have to hold tight while they wait for the pending market fluctuation.

While there is now near-consensus in commercial real estate crowds that property prices must come down, no one is sure how far they should fall. This has meant stasis in the market and frustration for professionals who earn their fees on transactional activity. A sharp increase in borrowing costs — made sharper still in the UK by September’s “mini” Budget — has made it hard for valuers to price property and for banks to lend against it, said Attenborough.

Tags

real estate, real estate sector, real estate market, property finance, private markets

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