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| 1 minute read

Germany's shift from gas to renewables

Continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine has shocked the German government into life as the effects of stagnant and complacent geopolitical policy has come back to bite. Years of reliance on and appeasement directed towards Russia have highlighted major weaknesses in the German economy; 2% of Germany’s total annual exports are sold to Russia and 55% of the nations gas reserves are supplied by the Kremlin. A new direction is required to repair the chinks in the armour.

Deindustrialisation is a real threat; the IMF estimate a possible 4.8% reduction in economic output with industry already feeling the effects. German chemical giant, BASF SE, has made significant cuts to ammonia production, a key chemical in the synthesis of fertiliser, due to its intensive requirement of natural gas. However, beneath the rubble, opportunities to reform and invest exist – mothballed coal power stations are being restarted, manufacturers like Mercedes Benz have found alternatives to natural gas in the car production process, reactivation of nuclear power stations is on the agenda and investment into green solutions has been accelerated. Germany is perched on the edge of what could be a period of real growth as they look to attract investors back into a historically reliable and efficient production and manufacturing industry.

To borrow a phrase from the late Emperor Hirohito, the war in Ukraine has developed not necessarily to Vladimir Putin’s advantage. It has sent Finland and Sweden bolting for the cover of nato membership. It has deepened Ukrainian nationalism, strengthened the democratic alternative Ukraine offers to Mr Putin’s own tyranny, and led customers for Russia’s energy to look elsewhere.


germany, equity, credit, fixed income, industry, europe, gas, oil, russia, ukraine, investment, cost of living, inflation, war, insurance solutions

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