'Gloomy and More Uncertain' is the IMF’s view of the economic outlook for emerging markets. Developments in nations such as Sri Lanka and Ghana, alongside record breaking recent divestment and cross-border outflows in foreign capital currently, further support the notion that a bleak storm hangs over emerging markets.
But Ruchir Sharma, Chairman of Rockefeller International, has a different perspective. Sharma writes in the FT that not all emerging markets are the same and highlights the opportunity for investment in some, such as India and Brazil, that could see strong growth for several years to come. He draws attention to actions by central banks of developing nations who introduced quantitative tightening in early 2021, a year before the Fed. As a result, inflation has been dampened significantly, with developed nations making up the lion share of countries suffering from rapid inflation - the first time for at least two decades.
The nature of today’s economic climate has been regularly hailed as the next iteration of the stagflation that cast its shadow over the 1970’s. Sharma brings to light the relative success emerging economies saw in GDP growth when lined up against developed economies over that decade. Recent progress made between Zambia and China regarding the restructuring of debt also provides hope to other low-income nations at risk of defaulting on loans issued by Beijing. All things considered; emerging markets may not sit quite so centrally in the eye of the storm that draws ever nearer.