Mercer has predicted that the global economy could grow at on trend levels, showing signs of recovery from the 2019 slowdown caused by uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade war. Increases in manufacturing, as well as signs that China is being less aggressive in stimulating its economy, suggest there will be greater confidence in business that could stabilise fears over economic uncertainty. Mercer have further suggested that Emerging Markets could outperform Developed Markets.
Lane Clark & Peacock have predicted increased demand for buy-in and buy-out deals in 2020, as more DB schemes reach maturity and insurance companies remain hungry for asset-intensive investing.
This has been echoed by Willis Towers Watson, although it suggested the annuities market would be generally more balanced that LCP have suggested.
Mercer expects the global economy to recover from below-trend growth rates to around trend as manufacturing picks up a bit and easier monetary policy begins to feed through, provided the US-China trade war doesn’t escalate and global labor markets continue to be strong. Within the pickup in global growth, the firm expects emerging economies to do slightly better than the developed world.